Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.177744 0.207624 0.240434 0.279059 0.323205 0.372006 0.429957
2025-11-16 0.124962 0.164535 0.212729 0.275373 0.354235 0.449775 0.573785
2025-11-23 0.093398 0.134787 0.189304 0.265587 0.368640 0.501963 0.686243
2025-11-30 0.080780 0.125485 0.188162 0.281083 0.413656 0.593998 0.855383
2025-12-07 0.065152 0.108432 0.172734 0.273262 0.423972 0.638435 0.962680
2025-12-14 0.053141 0.094291 0.158781 0.264605 0.430506 0.676281 1.062029
2025-12-21 0.044314 0.083474 0.147961 0.258588 0.439213 0.716688 1.167010
2025-12-28 0.039139 0.077807 0.144371 0.263154 0.464153 0.782861 1.315331
2026-01-04 0.035553 0.074291 0.143745 0.272223 0.496771 0.863093 1.491184
2026-01-11 0.031989 0.070172 0.141394 0.277778 0.523630 0.935690 1.659718
2026-01-18 0.028530 0.065653 0.137623 0.280153 0.544855 1.000150 1.819048
2026-01-25 0.025308 0.061049 0.133012 0.280263 0.561720 1.058024 1.970828
2026-02-01 0.021987 0.055743 0.126466 0.276192 0.571039 1.104435 2.108146
2026-02-08 0.019079 0.050846 0.120091 0.271714 0.579173 1.149477 2.246769
2026-02-15 0.016167 0.045374 0.111687 0.261977 0.575931 1.173170 2.348235
2026-02-22 0.015527 0.045318 0.115068 0.277276 0.623711 1.295168 2.638190
2026-03-01 0.013367 0.040988 0.108186 0.269550 0.623737 1.326181 2.759812
2026-03-08 0.011464 0.036939 0.101344 0.261000 0.621019 1.351321 2.871481
2026-03-15 0.009968 0.033699 0.095956 0.255057 0.623146 1.385920 3.003431
2026-03-22 0.009178 0.032341 0.095064 0.259567 0.648513 1.469144 3.236712
2026-03-29 0.008665 0.031718 0.095977 0.268524 0.684586 1.576771 3.525572
2026-04-05 0.008045 0.030636 0.095518 0.274011 0.713155 1.670526 3.791710
2026-04-12 0.007361 0.029204 0.093901 0.276357 0.734552 1.750369 4.033747